基于协整理论及误差修正模型,对我国1995-2016年间房地产开发投资与国内生产总值的关系进行研究。结果表明:样本期内,中国房地产市场发展与经济增长之间存在着长期平衡和短期波动的关系。从长期发展来看,中国房地产企业每增加1%的投入额,就会给我国经济发展增加0.6705%的收益;而从短期波动来看,房地产企业每增加1%的投入额,GDP增长0.3362%。作为终端类产品,房地产产业链长,投资额大,对经济的影响是长期显著的。保持国民经济的长期平稳增长,需要构建以政府、企业和个人为主体,市场机制真正发挥作用的房地产市场。
The paper is based on China's real estate investment development and the gross domestic product data from1995to2016,using the theory of cointegration and ECM.The research results of the model show that there is long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship between real estate market development and economic growth in our country.From the point of long-term development,real estate enterprises1%increase in the forehead,and it will add0.6705%to the economic development of China;From the point of short-term fluctuations,real estate enterprises1%increase in the forehead,and it will add0.3362%to the economic development of China.On the basis of the research,it shows that as the end product,the real estate industry chain keeps long and investment is large,which is significant for the economic impact of long-term.It need to build the government,enterprises and individuals as the main body,and market mechanism can play a real role in the real estate market to keep stable and sustainable growth of national economy.