中文摘要：

年径流预测是水资源学科中的研究热点与难点，如何保证预测方法的科学性与预测精度的稳定性是研究的关键问题。文中应用可变集的辩证法数学定理，引入辩证思维，提出年径流预测可变集方法新的研究途径。通过实例与实测值比较分析，表明新的预测途径在满足一定预报精度要求的前提下，可以保证方法的可靠性与结果的稳定性，具有广阔的应用发展前景。

英文摘要：

Annual runoff prediction is a hot point and challenges of water resource science. How to ensure the scientificity of the prediction method and the stability of the prediction accuracy is an important and key research area. In this paper, the authors bring in a dialectical thinking based on the dialectics mathe-matical theorem of variable sets, and propose a new research approach of variable sets method for annual runoff prediction. Through a case study, the results comparison and analysis, the new method of variable sets can guarantee the reliability of the method and the stability of the results on the premise of meeting certain prediction accuracy,so the new method should be a broad application prospects.