中文摘要：

利用西江流域及其周边地区36个气象站1960年～2000年的冬、夏半年及年平均气温资料,对西江流域的气温变化特征进行诊断分析,结果表明：冬半年气温呈显著增加趋势,信度水平在99%以上,冬、夏半年及年平均气温的增加率分别为0.237℃/10年、0.07℃/10年和0.127℃/10年;从区域上看,冬半年西江流域大部分地区气温增加趋势显著,南盘江至柳江之间的区域增温趋势的信度水平在99%以上,夏半年和年平均气温仅部分区域出现显著增温;冬、夏半年及年平均气温都在不同的尺度上都存在明显的周期震荡;冬半年和年平均气温均在1987年左右发生增温突变,突变后气温分别增加0.5℃和0.4℃.

英文摘要：

Based on observation data from 36 stations during 1960 to 2000 in the Xijiang river watershed, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of air temperature were analyzed. The results showed that, the air temperature in cold seasons is increasing at the rate of 0.23℃/10a and 99 % confidence level. The highest air temperature in the warm seasons during the past 41 years happened in 1983, and its average air temperature was 9.8℃. The lowest average air temperature in cold seasons happened in 1976, which was 7.68℃. The warm seasons and the annual air temperature are increasing by 0.12℃/10a and 0.07℃/10a, respectively. The air temperature in cold seasons is low in the 1960s and in the 1970s, high in the 1980s and in 1990s. The air temperature in warm seasons is high in the 1960s, but low in the 1970s and the 1980s, and also high in 1990s. The annual air temperature is low from 1970s to 1980s, high in the 1990s. The air temperature in most parts of Xijiang river watershed increased remarkably in cold seasons. The air temperature from Nanpanjiang to Liujiang increased at 99% confidence level. In a few areas, annual air temperature and warm-season air temperature increased remarkably. Multiple temporal-scale analysis on the annual air temperature and cold-/warm-seasons air temperature were done based on the wavelet method. The results showed that the air temperature was fluctuating periodically with the variation of temporal scale. The air temperature in the cold seasons presented 2-year fluctuation during 1960s-1980s and quasi-4-year fluctuation during 1965-1980 and quasi-8-year fluctuation from 1970 to 2000. The air temperature in warm seasons presented oscillation periods of quasi-4-year during 1960-1970, and the annual average temperature has 16-years oscillation period. Sharp change of the annual and cold/warm-seasons air temperature was tested through the M-K method. The annual air temperature increased sharply with a rate of 0.4℃ in 1987. The clod-season air temperature increased sharply with an