中文摘要：

一个新模拟错误修正(原子能委员会) 计划在这研究基于动人的诺思太平洋索引(MNPI ) 被设计。这个计划在中国的国家气候中心的运作的联合一般发行量模型(CGCM ) 的预言技巧显示出明显的改进因为在 mid-to-lower 上的雨季降雨(RSR ) 异例模式关联系数(ACC ) 长江(MLRYR ) 到达。比较分析显示用 MNPI 的新计划的有效性比用北方太平洋索引(NPI ) 的系统错误修正计划好。一个欧几里德几何学的 distanceweighted 平均数而非一个传统的算术平均数，被用于模拟的年预言错误领域的集成。由使用 MNPI 原子能委员会计划，在时期期间， 20032009 当时是的 RSR 的独立样品 hindcasts 评估了。结果证明新计划在 20032009 期间展出了更高的预报技巧，与 0.47 的平均 ACC；当为 NPI 盒子的 ACC 仅仅是 0.19 时。而且，在 MLRYR 上的 RSR 的预报技巧被检验。在 MNPI 盒子中，实验直角的功能(文件结束) 从 CGCM 在预言错误域的度压缩被使用，而 AEC 计划仅仅被用于它积聚的解释变化为 80% 全部的变化说明了的开始的几个文件结束部件。这进一步在 7 年的时期期间改进了独立样品 hindcasts 的 ACC 到 0.55。

英文摘要：

A new analog error correction （AEC） scheme based on the moving North Pacific index （MNPI） is designed in this study. This scheme shows obvious improvement in the prediction skill of the operational coupled general circulation model （CGCM） of the National Climate Center of China for the rainy season rainfall （RSR） anomaly pattern correlation coefficient （ACC） over the mid-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR）. A comparative analysis indicates that the effectiveness of the new scheme using the MNPI is better than the system error correction scheme using the North Pacific index （NPI）. A Euclidean distance- weighted mean rather than a traditional arithmetic mean, is applied to the integration of the analog year＇s prediction error fields. By using the MNPI AEC scheme, independent sample hindcasts of RSR during the period 2003-2009 are then evaluated. The results show that the new scheme exhibited a higher forecast skill during 2003-2009, with an average ACC of 0.47; while the ACC for the NPI case was only 0.19. Furthermore, the forecast skill of the RSR over the MLRYR is examined. In the MNPI case, empirical orthogonal function （EOF） was used in the degree compression of the prediction error fields from the CCCM, whereas the AEC scheme was applied only to its first several EOF components for which the accumulative explained variance accounted for 80% of the total variance. This further improved the ACC of the independent sample hindcasts to 0.55 during the 7-yr period.