在计算与分析广州地区33年实测月降水量序列统计参数的基础上,将月降水量序列进行对数变换,采用一阶AR(P)模型建立了月降水量随机模拟模型。通过与实测结果的比较检验了该模型的适用性。
On the basis of calculation and analysis of statistical parameters of measured monthly rainfall sequences of thirty-three years in Guangzhou area, performs logarithmic transformation of the monthly rainfall sequences, and develops a stochastic simulation model of monthly rainfall by the first order AR(P) model. Validates the model through the comparison with measured data.