根据刘易斯转折点到来时的多个典型特征,利用宏观数据并结合中国家庭营养与健康调查的微观数据,基于多个判断标准,对我国何时跨越刘易斯转折点进行分析。研究结果发现:我国直到2008年前后才到达刘易斯转折点。与经典刘易斯模型及其他国家经验不同的是,在到达刘易斯转折点时,我国仍然有9000万左右的富余劳动力。今后的劳动力转移将呈现以较高教育程度的年青人转移为主和中西部就近转移的新模式,劳动力转移数量不再主要由工资差距决定是转移新模式的最主要特征。
According to several criterions inferred from the Lewis Turning Point, this paper analysis whether and when has China passed the Lewis Turning Point based both on macro and micro data of China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Our results show that China has past the Lewis Turning Point at around 2008. Contrary to the conclusion of tradition Lewis model, estimates suggest that there are still about 90 million surplus labors in the countryside when China arrived at the Lewis Turning Point. The labor migration will be dominated by high educated young people and local transfer in the central and western regions of China in the future. The most prominent feature of new pattern of labor migration is that the number of migrant workers will not be determined by the wage difference between rural and urban.