中文摘要：

以地处西北内陆干旱地区的塔里木河流域为研究单元,以流域系列统计资料和野外实际调研为研究基础,利用层次分析法原理,考虑到流域社会经济、水文水资源、农业水资源开发利用、农业节水水平及其生态环境对农业节水潜力的影响,构建了塔里木河流域农业节水潜力评价指标体系和相应评价模型,并利用评价模型对塔里木河流域的农业节水潜力实现水平进行了评价,其评价结果表明塔里木河流域农业节水潜力实现水平2003年比1996提高了49%,比2000年提高了17%,说明该流域随着农业节水措施的实施及节水水平的不断提高,农业节水取得了一定的成效且农业节水潜力实现水平将越来越高,目前尚存在较大节水潜力待进一步挖掘。

英文摘要：

Based on statistical information and fieldwork investigation, applying analytic hierarchical process theory and taking the Tarim River Basin as a research unit, this paper established the mathematical model and indicator system for integrated evaluation of agricultural water-saving potential. The indictor system includes five aspects such as socioeconomic, hydrology and water resources, agricultural water use efficiency, and the extent of agricultural water-saving development and the ecological environment. The evaluating model and the indicator system are applied to evaluate synthetically the agricultural water saving potential in Tarim River Basin. The evaluation results showed that level of agricultural water-saving potential in 2003 increased by 49 % compared to that in 1996, and by 17 % compared to that of 2000 in the basin, indicating that with the implementation of the agricultural water-saving measures and continuous improvement of the level of water-saving, the effectiveness of agricultural waterconservation has been obtained and the implementation level of agricultural water-saving measures is getting higher and higher, and greater potential leaves for further exploitation in the basin.