中文摘要：

根据汇率变动的压力来源,引入包括名义汇率、外汇储备、国际利差、通胀水平差、远期升贴水、双边贸易差额等在内的六个因素构建外汇市场压力指数,综合分析2000年1月至2008年6月人民币汇率变动的压力来源。结果显示：人民币的升值压力除了在汇改之初小幅下降外,在其他考察时间段内基本都表现出明显的升值趋势,且各个阶段的汇率走势和压力源贡献分解也体现出差异化的特点。

英文摘要：

This paper constructs an exchange market pressure index with six resources leading to the change of exchange rate：nominal exchange rate,foreign reserves,international interest rate spread,inflation difference,forward premium （discount） and bilateral trade balance.By analyzing RMB exchange rate behavior between January in 2000 and June in 2008,this paper shows that except for a slight decline shortly after the exchange rate reform,remarkable appreciation trend is revealed in the other periods,with exchange rate change and pressure compensation distinctly characterized.Suggestions are given based on analytical results.