中文摘要：

利用一个远距离输送的沙尘模式估计了由于参数化过程（干沉降速度）和输入资料（源强和水平风场）的误差造成沙尘模拟的不确定性。通过对以上参数分别进行敏感性试验,分析了模式对2002年3月15～24日期间中国东部地区两次主要沙尘过程模拟的不确定性。结果显示,源区的潜在源强和气象水平风场的不确定性对模拟结果的影响最大,而干沉降速度的影响相对较小。同时,对不同区域[西部（〈95°E）、中部（95°E～110°E）和东部（〉110°E）]的潜在源强和干沉降速度参数进行敏感性试验发现,中部区域的参数设置对模拟结果的影响最大,而西部和东部区域的参数变化对模拟结果的影响很小。此外,不同高度的风场影响也不一样：地面风速影响最大,中层的影响较小,而高层（约6km高度以上）的风场几乎没有影响。

英文摘要：

This paper estimates the uncertainty in the outputs of a dust-transport model due to physical parameterizations （dry deposition） and input data （source intensity and wind fields）. Sensitivity experiments are generated from a reference simulation in which one parameter is changed at a time. Comparisons of the simulations and observations allow us to access the impact of each process and the robustness of the model. The case study is a 10-day simulation of dust concentrations over East Asia during 15-24 March 2002. Results show that there is a higher uncertainty due to the input data （source intensity and wind fields） than the dry deposition velocity. Moreover,for this case,there is higher uncertainty due to the source intensity and the dry deposition velocity in the middle area （95°E-110°E） than in other areas,and there is higher uncertainty due to surface wind fields than higher-level ones.