中文摘要：

通过分析车辆自动定位数据,揭示在随机因素干扰下城市公交线路车头时距偏差呈现随运行过程放大的趋势,且存在非定向放大向定向放大转换的拐点.提出基于动态车头时距偏差阈值的区间车速引导控制方法,给出控制逻辑和引导车速优化模型.案例应用表明,该控制方法能够抑制车头时距偏差放大趋势,一定程度降低了乘客的出行时间成本,有利于维系车队运行秩序,提升线路服务可靠性.

英文摘要：

By analyzing the location data of automatic vehicles, this paper revealed that bus headway deviation tends to increase with vehicles traveling further along the route and there exists a turning point where non-directional amplification is transformed to directional amplification influenced by the random factors. Then, this paper proposed a section-speed guiding method considering the dynamic threshold of headway deviation and established the control logic and the model for optimizing the guidance speed. The case application showed that the proposed control method can restrain the amplification trend of the headway deviation along the route, decrease the travelling time of passengers to some extent, and be conducive to maintaining the operation order and service reliability of the fleet.