中文摘要：

突水涌泥是岩溶隧道施工中的主要地质灾害之一,建立基于勘察、设计和施工3个阶段突水风险评价的隧道施工许可机制是减少损失和控制风险的有效途径。通过对我国近50 a岩溶隧道（洞）突涌水工程实例资料的系统收集与归类整理,分析隧道突涌水的孕险环境和致险因子,遴选出突涌水的典型影响因素作为模糊层次评估方法的影响因子,统计分析出各影响因素与突涌水发生概率和发生次数之间的隶属函数或表征关系,采用综合赋权法确定评价指标的权重,建立岩溶隧道突涌水风险模糊层次评价模型,进行隧道施工前勘察和设计2个阶段的突涌水风险预评价和施工中的动态评价。首先,据勘察资料对隧道突涌水的孕险环境进行初步评价,以确定隧道不同区段降低致险因子影响度的施工对策;然后,为检验其有效性,在设计阶段综合考虑孕险环境和致险因子进行突涌水风险的预评价;最后,在施工过程中,基于突涌水风险预评价结果的区段特征,全程动态追踪隧道揭露围岩的水文地质、力场和地球物理场等反馈信息,辨识隧道即将揭露区段突涌水风险的孕险环境和致险因子,进行突涌水风险等级的动态修正,并通过对不同风险等级区段的风险接受准则和风险控制对策的界定,实现隧道施工期突涌水风险的实时、准确和有效的风险管理,从而建立完善的基于隧道施工许可机制的施工安全风险控制体系。经三峡翻坝高速公路3条高风险岩溶隧道试运行证明,基于突涌水风险评价的施工许可机制在岩溶隧道突水预测与灾害控制方面具有明显作用,其分析结果相对准确可靠,具有广泛的应用前景。

英文摘要：

Water inrush and mud gushing are the typical common geologic hazards for the karst tunnel construction.Based on risk evaluation model of water inrush,management system of construction permission mechanism can be established to reduce the economic loss and water inrush risk.The major factors are summed up and selected as the impact factor of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process（FAHP） by collecting and collating information of water inrush examples of karst tunnels in recent 50 years,the membership function is proposed between the factors and the probability of occurrence of water inrush and its volume,and a FAHP model of risk evaluation for water inrush is established by a comprehensive assigning method which is adopted to determine the weight of evaluation indices;and water inrush risk can be evaluated for the three different stages of tunnel construction.Firstly,based on the preliminary evaluation for environment of dangerous source at the prospecting stage,the risk factors effect and construction of risk reduction can be determinated.Secondly,pre-evaluation of water inrush for environment of dangerous and risk factors can be done in order to prove the effectiveness of construction organization at the design stage.At last,based on distribution of the pre-evaluation results,risk grade can be modified by tracing the hydrogeology,mechanical and geophysical information of exposed rock during the excavation process;and risk control criterion and countermeasures for different excavated sections can be determined by identifying the environment of dangerous source and risk factors for next excavated section;and management system of construction risk can be established in order to get the accurate,effective and real-time risk control of water inrush.The risk management system of water inrush has been proved that the evaluation result is accurate and reliable by its application to three typical karst tunnel of Sanxia highway,which can be further used for other underground projects.