中文摘要：

本文以个人违约因素分析为起点，对抵押贷款违约率和房价变化的关系进行理论分析，得出抵押贷款违约率关于房价变化具有分段响应特征的结论：在房价增长率低于某一临界水平的时候，抵押贷款违约率和房价增长率之间呈现负相关关系；而在增长率高于该临界水平的时候，两者呈现不相关的关系。之后，文章对于不同贷款一房价比率的抵押贷款响应的区别进行理论预言，并利用美国普通贷款和次级贷款违约率的数据对以上结论给出了实证支持。最后，本文深入分析了这一效应对于抵押贷款及其衍生产品风险管理的含义．并就我国当前在住房改革过程中银行风险控制提出了政策建议。

英文摘要：

Based on the relative factors, we analyzed the relationship between the foreclosure rate and the house price appreciation theoretically. We found that the foreclosure rate is negatively related to the house price appreciation rate only if the house price growth rate is higher than the critical value. Otherwise, they are non-relative to each other. Then we analyzed the mortgages of different loan-to-value ratios, with further results obtained, which can be supported by American data. At last, the paper analyzes the implications of the above results for the risk management of mortgages or mortgage-backed securities. Some advices are also provided on the risk management in banking system during the recent adjustment of housing market in China.