英国脱欧事件的触发,或将开启“去全球化”进程的新格局。本文着眼于英国脱欧事件,以银行业一体化为视角,基于多元GARCH-DCC模型,通过测算样本各国银行业动态时变相关系数,对“去全球化”进程展开深入思考。研究表明,基于各国异质性,全球化发展具有非中性的特征。以英国为例,英国与欧盟各国银行业一体化程度并不一致,与美国的一体化程度仍高于绝大部分欧盟国家。研究认为,“全球化”并没有完全逆转,未来经济全面扩张的“全球化”将向选择性的“全球化”模式转变。
The triggering of British referendum from Europe, might open a new pattern of "deglobalization". Under the Perspective of Banking Integration, this paper focusing on this event, based on the multi-GARCH-DCC model, measures the dynamic time-varying correlation coefficient of banking industry in countries, and then attempts to think deeply about the "de-globalization" process in the'world. The study finds that "globalization" has a non-neutral feature because of heterogeneity of different countries. Taking UK as an example, the degrees of banking integration of UK and EU countries are different, and the degree of UK and US is higher than most EU countries. The conclusion is "Glo-balization" has not been reversed completely and the economy maybe shift form expanding "globalization" to selective "globalization" in the future.