供给侧结构性改革提出的深层次背景是中国需求结构的变化。需求结构偏离稳态增长率的程度将对供给的调整产生重要影响。基于索洛模型的拓展,构建需求结构变动偏离系数,可利用中国大陆31个省级区域的面板数据对需求结构变动偏离系数进行测度。结果表明:东部普遍存在较高的稳态增长率,而中、西部的稳态增长率相对比较低;经济发达的地区偏离程度小;经济不发达的地区需求结构偏离程度大,且偏离程度大的地区大多是出现在其经济增长过多依赖于投资需求的地区。此外,经济增长速度过快会导致需求结构偏离系数增加;人均GDP增加则会降低需求结构偏离系数,人均GDP是否处于中等收入水平对需求结构偏离系数没有影响;消费投资比越高,需求结构偏离系数则会越低。
The deep background of supply side structural reform is the change of the Chinese demand struc- ture. The degree of demand structure deviating from the steady-state growth rate will have an important influence on the adjustment of supply. This paper builds a coefficient of demand structure deviation and uses the panel data of 31 provincial regions to measure the coefficient of demand structure deviation. The results show that eastern regions have higher steady growth rate, the steady growth rate of central and western regions is lower; the well developed provinces have low deviation degree, the developing provinces have high deviation degree and high deviation degree mostly exists in the provinces where economic growth depends on investment demand too much. Too fast economic growth leads to the increase of the coefficient of demand structure deviation;the increase of per capita GDP reduces the coefficient of demand structure deviation and whether the per capita GDP is in middle-income level has no effect on the coefficient of demand structure deviation; the higher the consumption and investment ratio is, the lower the coefficient of demand structure deviation will be.