假定技术进步为中性的研究方法,忽略了融合在资本中的体现式技术进步,导致其无法对中国经济高速增长与全要素生产率不断降低同时并存的现象进行解释。本文打破传统测算方法,建立新的资本体现式技术进步测算模型,以制造业及其细分行业为研究对象,尝试对上述悖反现象进行新的诠释。研究结果表明:中国制造业技术进步明显偏向资本;资本体现式技术进步对制造业产出增长的贡献率为12.15%,占整个资本贡献率的16.95%,传统研究由于没有将这部分内容测算在内,因而低估了技术进步的作用。在三类行业中,技术密集型行业中的资本体现式技术进步贡献最高,劳动密集型行业中资本体现式技术进步的水平最低,资本密集型行业则大多处于中间阶段。在资本体现式技术进步中,以外资引进为主的设备资本起到了关键性作用,但目前已进入规模报酬递减阶段,人力资本是中国制造业转型升级中最缺乏的核心要素。
The research on technological progress is generally assumed that it is neutral,and embodied technological progress is neglected which was fused in capital,resulting that it cannot make a reasonable explanation to the phenomenon of China 's rapid economic growth and TFP showing a downward trend coexisting. By breaking the traditional calculation of technology progress,this paper establish a new model which is to measure capital-embodied technical progress,through selecting the manufacturing industry and sub-sector as the research object,to try to explain the phenomenon of this kind of anti-tradition. The results show that the technical progress of China's manufacturing industry is capital-biased obviously; And the contribution rate of capital-embodied technological progress to economic growth is 12. 15%,accounting for 16. 95% of the total contribution. As ignoring this part of technical progress measurement,the traditional study underestimated the role of technological progress. Among them,the highest contribution rate of capital-embodied technological progress to economic growth is technology-intensive industries,while labor-intensive industries of capital-embodied technological progress is the lowest,and capital-intensive industries is mostly in the intermediate stage. Within the capital-embodied technical progress,foreign-based capital equipment played a key role,but has entered the stage of decreasing returns to scale,and human capital is the core which is also one of the most lack of elements for China's manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading.