中文摘要：

笔者在测算我国1953年～2007年间CO2排放量的基础上，通过对数据的经济计量检验，建立联立方程组模型，研究CO2排放量与人均GDP间双向因果关系，并分析各种因素对CO2排放量的影响。实证结果显示，我国CO2排放量与人均GDP间变动关系并不是简单EKC模型中的倒U型，有着更为复杂的相互作用关联。人均GDP提高导致CO2排放量上升的同时，能源利用效率的提高、能源消费结构的改善，以及资本设备更新速度的加快，都将减少CO2排放。

英文摘要：

Based on the measurement of Chinese CO2 emissions in 1953 -2007, the authors construct simultaneous equations model through the econometric tests of the data, and study the two-way causality between COs emissions and GDP per capita, and the authors analyze the factors that influence CO2emissions. The empirical results show that Chinese CO2 emissions and per capita GDP is a com- plex interaction instead of a reversed U in the simple EKC model. Increasing per capita GDP can lead to more CO2 emissions, but at the same time, improving energy utilization efficiency, optimizing energy consumption structure, and speeding up the capital equipment renewal will reduce CO2 emissions.