中文摘要：

为了给兖州矿区综放面地表移动变形预计提供更加科学的依据，在实测资料基础上，通过理论研究和数理分析：（1）获得下沉系数与采宽／基岩厚的关系式，并获得水平移动系数、主要影响角正切、拐点偏移距系数与宽深比之间的系列关系式；（2）指出当开采宽度增加到一定程度（采宽／基岩厚=1．0左右）后，地表下沉系数增加明显；（3）随着宽深比的增大，水平移动系数的变化是一个先减小、后增大的过程，当宽深比0．5左右时，水平移动系数最小：（4）获得适合兖州矿区的综放面边界上方预计下沉值的修正公式。

英文摘要：

In order to offer more scientific references to ground movement and deformation prediction of fully-mechanized mining face with sublevel caving in Yanzhou mine area, based on field survey data and through theoretical study and mathematical analysis, some conclusions are drawn as follows. A formula for relationship between subsidence factor and the ratio of mining width to basement rock thickness is obtained; and a series of formulas for relationships among displacement factor, tangent of main effect angle, displacement distance of inflection point and the ratio of mining width to mining depth are also achieved. It is pointed that, when mining width increases to a certain value（the ratio of mining width to basement rock thickness is about 1.0）, the subsidence factor will increase obviously. As the ratio of mining width to mining depth increases, the change of displacement factor decreases firstly and then increases. When the ratio of mining width to mining depth is about 0.5, the displacement factor reaches to the minimum value. The modified formulas of subsidence prediction value over boundary of fully-mechanized mining face with sublevel caving, which is applicable to Yanzhou mine area, are also gained.