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中文摘要：
利用系统动力学的原理和建模方法描述了我国粮食中长期的供求状况，用因果关系图研究和分析了粮食生产、需求、库存和价格因素的因果反馈关系，并建立了一个系统动力学模型，其中的参数估计运用了计量经济学方法．模型模拟了个人投入、国家投入、自然条件和国家政策对牿食供求状况的影响，为政府决策部门进行粮食预测和政策仿真提供了数量依据，以期能够对我国粮食供求预测、预警和政策分析等层面提供一定的支持。
英文摘要：
Based on the descriptions of grain supply and demand situation in medium- and long-term, the casual loop diagram was constructed to depict the casual feedback relations between grain production, consumption, stock and price. The System Dynamics model was constructed and Econometrics method was employed in parameter estimation. The model simulated the influence of individual investment, government investment, natural condition and governmental policy on grain supply and demand situation, in order to provide quantitative reference and data support for decision-maker in grain forecasting and warning, policy analysis and simulation.
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A cognitive model of intra-organizational knowledge-sharing motivations in the view of cross-culture
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