中文摘要：

为采用实时监测信息对桥梁结构构件的可靠性进行动态预测分析,应用健康监测系统的长期大量监测数据,建立了基于监测数据的动态模型（监测方程与状态方程）,引入混合高斯粒子滤波器（MGPF）,基于粒子滤波方法、贝叶斯方法以及动态模型,对监测信息状态变量的后验分布参数和监测值的一步向前预测分布参数进行预测分析.混合高斯粒子滤波方法通过重抽样技术,提高了动态模型的预测精度.基于实时监测信息可以不断修正抽样粒子的权重,进而解决粒子退化问题.最后基于实时预测的分布参数,结合一次二阶矩（FOSM）方法,对桥梁结构构件的可靠性进行在线动态预测分析.

英文摘要：

To dynamically predict reliability of bridge members with real-time monitored information, with the long- term mass monitored data of health monitoring system, the data-based dynamic model including monitoring equation and state equation was built, and then the mixed Gaussian particle filter（MGPF） was introduced. With partiele filter method, Bayesian method and dynamic model, the posteriori distribution parameters of state variable and one- step forward prediction distribution parameters of monitored data were predicted. Through resampling technique, with MGPF, the prediction precision of dynamic model can be increased. Based on the real-time monitoring data, the weights of resampled particles can be constantly updated. Therefore, the problem of particle degradation is solved. Finally based on the real-time predicted distribution parameters, with the first order second moment （FOSM） method, the on-line and dynamic reliability of bridge members is predicted.