中文摘要：

本文利用空间回归模型,探讨影响未婚率的因素以及未婚率在重庆地区的空间分布情况,并探讨未婚率的集聚效应与相邻效应。研究结果表明：Moran’s I显示重庆地区未婚率确实有聚集效应,高未婚率主要集中在主城区,而低未婚率则集中在渝东北和东南地区。根据空间滞后模型显示,个人收入、女性受高等教育比例、女性就业率、性别比和农业人口比五个指标对女性未婚率有显著性影响。而空间误差模型分析结果表明,仍旧存在未知的因素影响着未婚率的空间聚集,我们推论可能为离婚风气或产业结构的不同等影响着空间聚集。

英文摘要：

This article,by utilizing spatial regression model,not only explores the factors affecting the unmarried rate as well as its spacial distribution in Chongqing,but also discusses agglomeration effects and neighborhood effects of the unmarried rate. The results of Moran＇s I show that Chongqing does have aggregation effects. Namely,the high unmarried rate mainly concentrates in the main urban area,while the low rate is concentrated in the northeast and southeast regions of Chongqing. According to spatial lag model,the five indicators of personal income,proportion of female with tertiary education,female employment rate,sex ratio and agricultural population ratio,have significant impacts on female unmarried rate. However,the results of spatial error model show that there still remain unknown factors affecting the aggregation of unmarried space,which may result from the divorce ethos,different industrial structure and so on.