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中文摘要：
由于气候变化导致的我国西北地区气温、降水量的变化引起了社会的广泛关注.乌伦古河流域位于阿勒泰地区的东南部,发源于阿尔泰山的东南坡,季节性积雪和夏季降水是乌伦古河的主要补给源.根据乌伦古河50多年的实测水文、气象资料分析,结果表明：50多年来,乌伦古河流域的气温、降水呈波动性上升趋势,上升幅度高于北疆的上升率.4-5月水量有增加趋势,而6-8月水量有减少趋势,说明积雪消融水量提前;径流受气温影响明显,径流对气温的变化较为敏感.气温升高和冬季降水量增多,导致融雪洪水增多,洪峰流量增大,破坏性加大.
英文摘要：
The changes in temperatures and precipitation in Northwest China have aroused widespread concern in society. The Ulungur River basin located in the southeastern of Altay region, and originated in the southeast slope of Altay Mountains, the seasonal snow cover and summer rainfall is the main supply water source. Based on the analysis of the hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years, the results showed that the temperatures and precipitation is increasing fluctuated, and the extent of rise is higher than that of North Xinjiang. The runoff is increasing in April to May, and decreasing in June to August, which indicating that there is an early trend in snow melting. The runoff affected significantly by temperature indicating that the runoff is more sensitive to temperature. The temperatures rise and the precipitation increases in winter resulted in the snowmelt floods and the peak flow increasing, and the destructive increased.
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