中文摘要：

基于汇率及国际收支理论,构建了汇率与国际收支的数理模型,运用1983-2009年的实际数据,实证二者之间的关系。结果显示：人民币汇率与国际收支之间存在长期稳定的关系;人民币汇率的变动是外商直接投资、对外直接投资变化的原因,不是进口、出口变化的原因;出口、外商直接投资的变动是人民币汇率变动的原因,进口、对外直接投资的变动不是人民币汇率变动的原因。最后,对实证结果进行原因分析并给出对策建议。

英文摘要：

Based on the theories of exchange rate and balance of payment,the article constructed a mathematical model to empirically study the relationship of the two by analyzing the data from 1983 to 2009.It can be concluded that there is a close relationship between exchange rate and balance of payment.Export and FDI are the causes of fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,while import and Outward FDI are not.In the end,this article analyzes the causes and proposes countermeasures.