中文摘要：

一、房地产预警研究现状及分析 在房地产市场预警方面，目前的理论研究大多局限在建立房地产指标体系方面。发表在国际学术刊物上的唯一文章Huangand Wang（2005）也是着重介绍房地产市场预警的指标体系。就国内的研究，张志杰和陈龙乾（2004）总结了我国学术界的现有研究成果：陈健容提出我国房地产监测体系应包含宏观监测与微观监测，梁运斌给出了将房地产业预警预报系统分为景气分析系统、预警信号系统、行业监测系统和景气调查系统四个部分的构想．丁立宏提出我国的房地产市场监测指标体系应包括房地产景气指标体系与房地产预警指标体系，袁贤祯根据宏观经济预警的理论提出了房地产业监测预警体系的功能、运作思路及景气指标体系的设置等。

英文摘要：

The house price in China has risen dramatically recently, which has brought huge attention from both the governmental and academic circles. The present paper constructs an early-warning model that is capable of forecasting, and estimates the model using monthly Beijing data. We find that the current house price is closely related to the house price of last period and the house price of the same period last year; meanwhile,the house price is also influenced strongly by the land cost, vacancy area and disposable income of city residents, among other factors. The empirical analysis shows that the housing market in Beijing is basically normally developed. It was overheated in 1997, and in 2005 the house price was relatively high but not overheated.