中文摘要：

本文考察了北京、天津、上海和重庆四个直辖市的住宅基本价值、泡沫成分及其区域溢出效应。首先，住宅基本价值模型有效捕捉了四个直辖市真实住宅价格的动态演化路径，由此我们将真实住宅价格分解成住宅基本价值和泡沫成分两部分。其次，在1999～2012年四个直辖市都存在住宅价格被低估和高估的阶段，但在时段和偏离程度上存在明显差异。最后，四个直辖市住宅价格泡沫成分间存在广泛的溢出效应，但在数量级和方向上均存在显著差异。

英文摘要：

Based on the residential fundamental value model, this paper investigates the residential fundamental value, bubble component and regional spillover effect for the four municipalities： Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing. Firstly, the model effectively captures the real residential price dynamics evolution of the four municipalities, and we de-compose the real house price into two parts： residential fundamental value and bubble component. Secondly, this paper finds that there are both undervalued and overvalued stages in the residential price of the four municipalities. However, the differences in time and deviation degree are obvious. Finally, we find that there are widespread spillover effect between the bubbles, but they vary considerably in magnitude and direction between the four municipalities.