中文摘要：

本文以农牧交错带的典型区域——内蒙古翁牛特旗为例,考虑土地利用变化过程的空间变量,建立了不同土地利用变化过程的logistic回归模型。结果表明：模型中转为耕地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和农业气候区;转为草地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离、土壤表层有机质含量和到乡镇中心的距离;转为林地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和海拔;空间异质性和土地利用变化过程的时间变量共同影响着使用logistic回归模型来解释土地利用变化驱动力的能力;通过对草地logistic回归模型的检验,得出空间统计模型能较好地揭示不同土地利用变化过程的主要驱动力及其作用机理。

英文摘要：

Land use and land cover change （LUCC） research has been given close attention during the past decade, because of the pivotal role of LUCC in many aspects like global climatic change, food security, soil degradation and biodiversity. This study attempts to identify how much driving forces of land-use changes can be understood through logistic regression analysis. So, spatial statistical models of the proximate causes of different processes of the land-use change in the farming-pastoral zone （Inner Mongolia） were developed, taking into account the spatial variability of the land-use change processes. The descriptive spatial models developed here suggested some important factors driving the land-use changes that can be related to some well-established theoretical frameworks. The explanatory variables of the spatial model of arable land suggest a model, where conversion to arable land is controlled by the rural settlements and agro-climatic zones. Grassland conversion is controlled by the distance to the nearest rural settlement, organic matter in the soil and distance to the nearest river. Expansion of forest is also controlled by the rural settlements and altitude. Spatial heterogeneity as well as the variability in time of land-use change processes affect human ability to use regression models for wide ranging extrapolations. These spatial models can identify the main driving forces of different land-use changes through validation of the logistic regression model of the grass expansion.