加工贸易已成为中国外贸的主要形式,但对于加工贸易的发展还存在一些争论。本文基于协整理论的实证分析揭示,加工贸易进出口、出口结构、中国经济增长、全要素生产率等5变量之间存在长期均衡的协整关系。短期内,加工贸易进口对我国总产出和全要素生产率均具有促进作用,而且比加工贸易出口的促进作用大,但从长期来看,加工贸易出口增长促进经济增长,加工贸易进口则与经济增长呈负相关关系。今后,我国继续发展加工贸易,不能仅看重微薄的加工费用,应更多地关注加工贸易与国内产业的联系,增强加工贸易的国内配套能力和进口替代能力,充分发挥加工贸易的动态利益,以促进国内的产业结构升级、技术进步和增长方式转型。
Preeessing trade is China's main pattern for participating in the international division, but whether or not or in what degrees it promotes our Economic Growth is questioned. Based on co- integration theory, empirical study shows that there is long- term equilibrium relationship in the five following variability: China's economic growth, processing trade import and export, structure or export, and the total factor productivity. Processing trade imports promotes not only total yield but also the total factor productivity from the short term and it betters processing trade exports; from the long term, however, the growth of processing trade exports promotes economic growth, but the processing trade imports and economic growth is negative correlated. So in the continuous development of our processing trade we should not only value the processing charges but value more the connection between processing trade and homestead industry; strengthen the processing trade local kit a- bility and import substitution potential, and develop the dynamic benefits of the processing trade to better the composition of industry, develop technology and change the growth pattern.