中文摘要：

网络搜索数据蕴含了三亿多市场主体的兴趣与关注，反映其行为趋势与规律，为研究宏观经济问题提供了必要的微观数据基础；本文从商品市场的角度建立概念框架，以均衡价格理论为基础，揭示了网络搜索数据与居民消费价格指数（CPI）之间存在一定的相关关系及先行滞后关系；实证结果表明：网络搜索数据与CPI之间存在协整关系，模型拟合度达到0．978，预测绝对误差为0．48，宏观形势搜索指数和供求关系搜索指数相对于CPI的先行周期分别为五个月和两个月；同时模型具有很强的时效性，比国家统计局的数据发布提前一个月左右；与传统的预测方法相比，模型还具备一定的转折点预测能力．

英文摘要：

The web search data, which recorded hundreds of millions of searchers＇ concerns and interests, re- flected the trends of their behaviors and provided an essential data basis for the study of macro-economic is- sues. This paper established a concept framework based on the commodity market and equilibrium price theo- ry, and revealed there is a certain correlation and lead-lag relationship between web search data and consumer price index （CPI）. Empirical results indicated there is a co-integration relationship between web search data and CPI. The model was able to obtain a good fit with CPI. The model fitting is 0.978 and the absolute fore- cast error is 0. 48. Simultaneously, the model has very strong time effectiveness compared with traditional CPI monitor method which had a 2-week lag, the model＇ s forecast result can be obtained once month ahead of theState Statistical Bureau＇ s report. Compared with the traditional forecasting methods, the model also has the predictive power for a certain turning point.