根据湖北省各县、市的统计资料,分析了湖北省50年代以来稻田面积变化的总体情况、空间差异和驱动因子。结果表明,湖北省稻田面积经历了从增长到减少的5个阶段:对各县、市的稻田面积变化运用GIS进行了空间差异分析,表明中部江汉平原地区相对变化率较小,而鄂西北、鄂北、鄂西南和鄂东的部分地区相对变化率较大:通过主成分分析.影响湖北省稻田面积变化的7个影响因子分别归纳为经济发展动态、人口增长压力和生产力发展与农业结构调整三大类因素,从单个因子看,GDP,人口数量和稻田单产是影响稻田面积变化的主要驱动因子。
According to the statistics at county and city levels, the general situation,spatial difference and its driving forces of the paddy area change in Hubei Province during the recent 50 years were discussed in this paper. Results showed that the paddy area in Hubei Province experienced five stages from growth to reduction. Spatial difference of the paddy area change in different counties and cities were analyzed by GIS method. Results indicated that the Jianghan Plain in the central area had relatively smaller changes, and some areas in the northwest, the north, the southwest and the east of Hubei Province had relatively greater changes. The seven driving force variables affecting the paddy area change were analyzed through an analysis of principal components and classified into three types, i.e., the dynamic development of economy, pressure of social system and progress of science and technology in agriculture. As to the specific factors, GDP, population and yield of paddy per hectare were the main driving forces of the paddy area change.