中文摘要：

统一分布模型继承了目前主要基于熵理论的重力模型的特点,引入统一分布模型进行物流分布预测，设计了基于空间0．618搜索算法的极大似然估计参数标定方法,通过实际算例比较了各种内部成本取法下统一分布模型和双约束重力模型的预测效果，发现物流分布具有规模效应．预测结果显示，统一分布模型各指标均优于双约束重力模型，证实了统一分布模型具有良好的适应性，是一种高效的物流分布模型．

英文摘要：

A consolidated distribution model （CM） which contains the most important characteristics of entropy gravity models was introduced to logistics distribution and an algorithm based on space 0. 618 search was used to maximum likelihood parameters estimation. By comparing the applications with double constraints gravity model and CM, the parameters＇ economic meaning is verified. The results of CM forecasting are always better than the double constraint gravity model and the CM is not sensible to the interior cost of logistics zone when the distance between zones is much bigger than the interior. It is turned out that CM is an effective and accommodative logistics distribution model.