中文摘要：

为了理清北京固废系统潜在的环境影响及相关机制发展状况,本研究基于填埋气逸出模拟对北京市固废系统中的填埋气排放和CDM项目进行研究分析。将中国垃圾填埋气模型应用到北京市,预测其潜在垃圾填埋气排放总碳当量达0.97亿t,2026年左右迎来产气高峰,排放量为54 367 m3/h,碳当量达228万t,2015—2040年间的碳当量占比约53.3%;北京市CDM数据分析显示,2010年以来北京市CDM项目发展良好,但较全国水平稍显滞后,其垃圾填埋气回收利用项目占北京市获批CDM项目总量的11.1%,签发数比例约33.3%,远低于全国水平的41.82%。研究表明：北京市固废系统即将步入产气高峰期,潜在碳排放量巨大,势必将给北京市的温室气体减排工作带来切实压力,但是相关CDM项目发展不适应当前的减排需求,急需加强和改善北京市的城市固体废物管理,推进相关CDM项目在北京的良性发展。

英文摘要：

The Chinese landfill gas model was applied in Beijing.The total potential discharged carbon equivalent will be 97 million tonnes.In 2026,the discharge will reach the peak with 54 367 m3/ h and carbon equivalent of 22.8 million tonnes.In the period of 2015 to 2040,the predicted carbon equivalent will account for53.3% of the total discharge.Beijing＇s CDM data analysis shows that the CDM projects are all for landfill gas in Beijing with proportion of 11.1%.The issue number of landfill gas recycle projects reaches 33.3%,which is lower than 41.82% of the national level.It is thus concluded that Beijing has to pay more attention and promote the solid waste management,which can effectively control the GHG discharge.Meanwhile,the simulated gas production and trend show that improvement of urban solid waste management is imperative,especially focusing on GHG emission control.