中文摘要：

采用变权重组合模型和情景分析法,对北京市的城市固体废物（MSW）产量进行有效地预测.预测结果表明,北京市垃圾产量增幅不大但处理设施容量存在缺口.在科学预测的基础上,构建以温室气体（GHG）控制为上层目标,系统成本最小化为下层目标的双层规划模型（BLPMG＆MC）.该模型的结果表明,焚烧和堆肥将是北京市MSW的主要处理方式;在3个规划时段内,GHG总排放量达到1.67×106t（以CO2当量计）,填埋场的CH4和焚烧厂的N2O是GHG排放的主要贡献者;系统总成本达到7.0×109元,其中,65%的成本来自于焚烧厂和堆肥厂.4种模型结果的对比分析表明,双层规划能提供综合经济和环境因素的管理方案.

英文摘要：

To efficiently predict the quantity of municipal solid waste in Beijing,the quantity forecasting model was established based on the combined forecasting model with variable weights and scenario analysis method. Results showed that MSW output in Beijing would rise slightly,but a shortage of disposal capacity would remain. On this basis,a bi-level programming（ BLP-MGMC） was presented,in which the upper-level objective was to control greenhouse gas（ GHG） emissions and system cost minimization was placed at the lower-level objective. Results from the model indicated that composting and incineration would be the primary forms of MSW disposal. The total GHG emissions would reach 1.67×106t-CO2 eq over the planning horizon and the CH4 emissions emitted from landfill facilities and N2 O emissions associated with incineration facilities would be the major contributors to GHG emissions.The resulted system cost would amount to 7.0×109Yuan,with incineration and composting facilities responsible for about 65%. Comparative analysis of the four models revealed that the bi-level model would be conducive to providing compromised waste diversion schemes with both economic cost and environmental benefit.