基于无套利原理和期权博弈理论讨论了波动性对股票价格及收益的影响.将波动分解为波动收益期权和波动损失期权建立模型,并在投资者异质偏好假设下运用最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟得到了考虑红利及随机波动条件下波动性价值的基本分布特征.发现股票价格波动究竟表现为风险还是价值与投资者的波动偏好密切相关,且最终取决于股票的现金红利水平和波动率水平的共同作用.同时,时间参数对波动性价值亦有影响,但股票的初始价格与波动性价值无关.
The paper discussed stocks' volatility value based on the No-Arbitrage Theory and Option Games Theory. Dividing the volatility into volatility gain option and volatility loss option, the model was built and solved with the Least-Square Monte Carlo Simulation under the assumption of heterogeneous investor. Considering continuous cash dividend and stochastic volatility, we point out that the level of volatility value is closely related with investors volatility preference, and is decided by cash dividend and volatility level. At the same time, the time parameter will affect volatility value but the initial price of stock has no effect on it.