中文摘要：

新奇流行性感冒 A (H1N1 ) 全球一直在传播。早研究暗示那次国际航空旅行可能是没有适当抑制流行的一个严重潜力的关键原因。在这研究，在墨西哥和美国的一些城市的早爆发被用来由使用调整 SEIR 流行病学的模型估计初步的流行参数，显示病毒的能递送传染性。根据调查结果，一个新空间分配模型完全基于即时航空公司数据被建立估计到世界的从墨西哥的 H1N1 的潜在的传播。我们的估计发现 H1N1 的基本繁殖数字 R0 在 3.4 附近，并且有效繁殖数字由有效抑制策略严厉地掉落。发现也暗示西班牙，加拿大，法国，巴拿马，秘鲁是涉及严重地方性的 H1N1 传播的最可能的乡村。

英文摘要：

A novel influenza A （H1N1） has been spreading worldwide. Early studies implied that international air travels might be key cause of a severe potential pandemic without appropriate containments. In this study, early outbreaks in Mexico and some cities of United States were used to estimate the preliminary epidemic parameters by applying adjusted SEIR epidemiological model, indicating transmissibility infectivity of the virus. According to the findings, a new spatial allocation model totally based on the real-time airline data was established to assess the potential spreading of H1N1 from Mexico to the world. Our estimates find the basic reproductive number R0 of H1N1 is around 3.4, and the effective reproductive number fall sharply by effective containment strategies. The finding also implies Spain, Canada, France, Panama, Peru are the most possible country to be involved in severe endemic H1N1 spreading.