中文摘要：

一个逻辑模特儿被雇用相关有相关环境因素和鸟的迁居的高度病原的鸟的流行性感冒(HPAI ) 的爆发。把规范的差别植被索引的数据基于 MODIS，环境因素在在逻辑回归的帮助下产生一张概率地图被考虑。一个贝叶斯的最大的熵模特儿被雇用探索 HPAI 发生的空间、时间的关联。结果证明浇身体和国家高速公路的那最近与 HPAI 的出现统计上相关。候鸟，主要水鸟，是在 HPAI 传播的重要感染来源。另外， HPAI 爆发有高空间与时间的自相关。这个流行空间范围波动由于城市和水身体的不同分发模式的 45 km。而且，二爆发是可能的与 22 d 的一个时期发生。在为到 2004 年 2 月 17 日的从 1 月 23 日的时期的大陆中国的 HPAI 的出现的潜在的风险基于这些调查结果被模仿，提供为在 HPAI 风险的预言的环境因素的申请的一个有用元模型框架。

英文摘要：

A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in Mainland China for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.