中文摘要：

运用“最小人均耕地面积”及“耕地压力指数”的概念和计算模型对辽宁省1997--2007年间耕地资源动态变化进行了定量分析，应用灰色系统GM（1．1）预测模型对未来15年耕地压力变化进行了预测，据此提出了耕地利用和保护对策。研究结果表明：辽宁省工业大发展以来，特别是老工业基地的振兴和城市化进程的加快。虽然占用了一些耕地，但耕地压力指数不仅没有加剧，反而呈现下降趋势，主要原因是耕地生产力在不断提高。科技进步以及生态建设的完善是未来减轻耕地压力、保障耕地、人口和粮食可持续发展的重要途径。

英文摘要：

The minimum area per capita of cultivated land and the pressure index on cultivated land＇ con- cepts and calculation models are used to quantitatively analysis the dynamics of cultivated land resources during 1997--2007 in Liaoning Province. Then the gray system GM （1. 1 ） forecasting model is applied to predict the change of pressure index on cultivated land for the next 15 years. Finally, the land use and conservation strategies are proposed. The results show that： Although the industrial development, particularly the revitalization of old in- dustrial bases and the acceleration of urbanization process in Liaoning Province took up a number of cultivated land, but the pressure index on cultivated land has not increased, instead shown a downward trend due to the continuous improvement of the cultivated land productivity. Technological advances and the strengthening of ecological construction are main approaches to reduce land pressure, to ensure the sustainable development of cultivated land, population and food security in the future.