中文摘要：

为便于对电网连锁故障进行研究,介绍了与电网升级演化的触发息息相关的电力系统发展诊断指标,在此基础上提出一种改进OPA模型。该模型在慢动态环节加入电网规划的作用,模拟负荷变化、发电厂新建扩容、变电站新建扩容、输电线路新建改造等较长时间尺度上的电网演化升级过程;在快动态环节充分考虑调度、继电保护等在连锁故障过程中采取的措施及发挥的作用,模拟由于线路开断或短路、发电机退出运行等故障引发的连锁故障。利用所提模型对河南开封商丘地区220 kV及以上主干电网进行仿真测试,在长时间尺度上模拟电网演化升级的过程,同时统计不同升级触发阈值下的故障规模分布,从而求得系统临界状态所对应的触发阈值。仿真结果表明,文中所提的考虑电力系统规划的OPA模型能够较好地模拟电网生长演化,反映连锁故障产生和传播的过程,对未来的电网建设及大停电的整体预防有一定指导意义。

英文摘要：

For ease of studying cascading failures in power system, a power system diagnosis index system, which is closely linked with the triggering by the upgrade and the evolution of power system, is presented and on this basis an improved OPA model is proposed. The actions of the upgrade and the evolution of power system are added to the slow dynamic link of the proposed model to simulate the process of the upgrade and the evolution of power system in a longer time scale such as load variation, new construction or capacity increase of power plant, new construction or renovation of transmission lines and so on; in the fast dynamic link of the proposed model the actions of scheduling measures and protective relaying during cascading failures are fully taken into account to simulate cascading failures caused by accidents such as transmission line trip out, short-circuit faults, generator outage and so on. The proposed model is applied in the test of 220 kV and above backbone lines located in Kaifeng-Shangqiu area in Henan province to simulate the process of the upgrade and the evolution of power system in long time scale, meanwhile the statistics of the failure scale distribution under different triggering thresholds of the upgrade is performed, thus the triggering threshold corresponding to the critical state of power system is attained. Simulation results show that the proposed OPA model, in which the power system planning is taken into account, can simulate the expansion and evolution of power system well, and reflect the occurrence and spreading of cascaded failures, so it is helpful to power system construction and blackout prevention in the future.