中文摘要：

为了提高运行风险评估的精度，提出了一种计及元件运行状态时变性和自动装置调节作用的运行风险概率评估算法。该算法将元件分成时变元件和非时变元件2种类型，在日发电计划基础上推导出了各类元件的时间相关停运概率，并在故障后果分析中考虑了自动装置的调节作用，最后从失负荷量、越限程度和系统所处各类运行状态的概率3个方面构建了适合调度的运行风险指标。通过对IEEE—RTS可靠性测试系统的计算分析验证了所提出算法的有效性。

英文摘要：

To improve the accuracy of operational risk evaluation, an algorithm of operational risk evaluation is proposed, in which the time-variation of component＇ s operational state and the effect of under frequency load shedding are considered. In this algorithm the components are divided into two types, and the time-dependent outage probability of each type is deduced based on daily generation scheduling. Moreover, the impact of under frequency load shedding is taken into account. At last, the algorithm develops a series of risk indices, including loss of load expectation, off-limit indices and state indices. The calculation and analysis of IEEE-RTS 79 reliability test systems show that the proposed algorithm is effective.