中文摘要：

本文基于企业预防性现金持有的权衡理论、融资约束理论和代理理论，分析了企业家经济预期、融资约束和企业预防性现金持有三者之间的关系，并使用企业家信心指数作为企业家经济预期的代理变量，实证检验了企业家经济预期对企业预防性现金持有的影响。结果显示，企业预防性现金持有水平明显受到企业家经济预期的影响，两者之间呈现负相关关系；融资约束越强的企业受影响程度越大；东部地区企业受到的影响明显小于中西部地区企业；高公司治理水平的国有控股企业受到的影响明显小于非国有控股企业；低公司治理水平的国有控股企业受到的影响明显大于非国有控股企业。

英文摘要：

Based on the trade-off theory of precautionary cash-holding, financial constraints theory and agency theory, this paper analyzes the relationship among entrepreneur economic predictions, financial constraints and firm precautionary cash-holding. Using the index of entrepreneurial confidence to measure entrepreneur economic predictions, it tests empirically the effect of entrepreneur economic predictions on firm precautionary cash-holding. The results show that firm precautionary cash-holding level is significantly affected by entrepreneur economic predictions, and there is a negative correlation between firm precautionary cash-holding and entrepreneur economic predictions; in firms with stronger financial constraints, the effects are greater; the firms in eastern China are affected obviously less than the ones in central and western China; state-owned firms with higher-degree corporate governance are obviously affected less than non-state-owned ones; state-owned firms with lower-degree corporate governance are obviously affected more than non-state-owned ones.