中文摘要：

选取城市化速度较快和生态环境压力突出的重庆市主城区为研究对象,对该区域城区扩展进行模拟与预测。以研究区1988年、1993年、2000年、2007年4期遥感影像及城市规划图等为数据源,结合RS和GIS技术对数据进行处理作为模型输入数据,对SLEUTH模型进行校正获取适合研究区的最佳参数组合,进而对研究区1988～2007年间的城区扩展进行历史重构,并对该区域未来10年城区扩展情况进行预测。研究结果表明：首次将该模型应用到重庆地区,模型对研究区域的城区扩展模拟精度较高,未来10年该区域城市化速度有逐渐加快趋势,这与目前的土地规划决策、道路建设、经济结构及政策等因素密不可分。

英文摘要：

Districts of Chongqing is selected as the study area,which has a rapid rate of urbanization and eco-environmental pressure.The fundamental data of this study is the remote images and urban planning images of Chongqing city in 1988,1993,2000 and 2007.After data processing by RS and GIS,model calibration is applied to obtain the best parameters for the SLEUTH model.Then,the SLEUTH model is used for the simulation of the urban growth over the past 20 years.On the basis,the SLEUTH model is applied to predict the situation of urban expansion of the region in the next 10 years.The simulation results show that the calibrated model has a higher simulated precision for the urban expansion of study area,and the pace of urbanization has become relatively rapid in the study area,which may be closely related to the current land planning,road construction,industrial structure and economic policy.