中文摘要：

城市自然灾害的情景推演与应急方案的动态预评估是优化应急决策的重要支撑。然而,传统的应急救援方案评估往往基于有限信息进行时间片段式的情景推演并采用应急方案的灾后评估。本文在构建基于内涝水淹模型和多智能体城市路况模型的全链条、多维度灾害情景推演方案的基础上,实施不同应急救援目标导向下多时间刻度的应急救援方案预评估,重点从受损车辆规模和遭受安全威胁人数定量评估基于救援人数、救援时间和救援空间布局原则的应急方案优劣,为灾害情景推演方案和应急决策优化提供了一种新的思路与解决方案。基于救援人数规模的应急方案表明,救援力量将优先布局在风险指数高企的区域,包括北蜂窝路、南蜂窝路、广莲路以及莲花桥等路段。在现实情况中及时参加的救援力量往往有限,此类根据不同救援力量数量的空间指向将对最优的救援决策起到关键作用。同时,研究也应证了救援力量多寡在应急事件处置中的基础性地位。基于救援启动时间的应急方案中得出,最优的救援启动时间在45 min到75 min之间,适时的救援启动可以有效规避过早启动导致的救援空间配置不当和过晚启动导致的救援失效两类问题。不同救援空间布局原则有着迥异的救援力量空间配置特点和最优运用条件。

英文摘要：

The scenario deduction and dynamic pre-assessment of urban natural disasters emergency plan play vital roles in emergency decision optimization. However, traditional plan assessments usually consist of scenario deduction of time slices and post-disaster assessment based on limited information. Based on the full-chained multi-dimensional scenario deduction plan coupled with water-logging model and multi-agent urban road condition model, this article conducts pre-assessment of emergency plan with multi time scales and rescuing targets. By examining the scale of damaged cars and the number of people threatened by the disaster, the assessment is performed regarding the quantity of people, time, and spatial arrangement of the plan. Based on this, the article provides a new solution in conducting disaster scenario deduction plan and optimizing emergency decisions. The emergency plan based on the number of people indicates that the rescuing force is firstly arranged at areas with higher risk, including North Fengwo Road, South Fengwo Road, Guanglian Road and Lianhua Bridge. In reality, only limited force participates in rescuing in time, and the spatial direction based on the number of force plays a vital role in optimizing rescue decision. Meanwhile, we also prove that the amount of rescue force stands for the fundamental position in emergency dispose. From the emergency plan based on the initiating time of rescue, it can be seen that the best initiating time is between 45 and 75 minutes, and the appropriate time of initiating can efficiently avoid the improper configuration of rescue space due to the premaatre rescue and the loss of efficacy when it starts too late. Different spatial arrangements of rescue could lead to different rescue force arrangement features and optimized conditions.