中文摘要：

基于风险分析理论、数值模拟方法对地铁区间下穿既有铁路站场安全风险定量评价和专项设计技术进行研究。以大连地铁2号线南南区间下穿哈大客运专线站场为工程依托，提出综合利用专家调查、层次分析和模糊评判法对工程进行安全风险的初评和复评，在评估中采用数值模拟针对主要风险源进行量化分析，对潜在风险较大的影响因素根据计算结果，制定相应的安全风险应对措施加以控制。实践表明，本文提出的定性评价与定量模拟相结合的方法可有效提高风险评估的可靠性和设计方案的针对性、有效性，达到有效控制工程建设风险、减少安全事故发生、降低工程经济损失和避免人员伤亡等目的。

英文摘要：

Based on risk assessing theory and numerical simulation method, quantitive risk assessing and special design technique for metro line tunnel under-passing existing railway station are studied. With reference to major project of Dalian metro line 2 Nannan section tunnel under-passing Harbin -Dalian express railway station yard, primary assessing and re-evaluation for the risk of the project are conducted through comprehensive expert investigation, AHP and Fuzzy evaluation method. During the assessing process, quantitive evaluation of major risk sources is analyzed with numerical simulation method, and relevant measurements for risk control are proposed according to calculation results to cope with potential risky factors. The practice shows that the combination of qualitative assessing with quantitive simulation suggested by this paper may improve effectively the reliability of risk assessment, the specificity and efficiency of design work so as to control the construct risk, reduce safety accident, decrease economic loss and prevent personnel casualties.