中文摘要：

我国目前对地质灾害评估的研究主要是基于静态的,而实际上地质灾害是一个动态变化的过程,应进行动态地质灾害评估的研究。首次探讨用事件树分析和模糊多层次综合评判结合GIS,进行动态地质灾害评估的研究,选择福建省泉州市德化县浔中镇为实例,通过选用2012-08台风＂苏拉＂,08-02：15：00、08-03：10：00与08-03：23：00等3个时刻的地质灾害情况,分别作出评价风险图,预测地质灾害的动态变化趋势,从而采取相应的地质灾害防范的措施。其研究结果对地质灾害的防范具有一定的指导作用,能减少一定损失。

英文摘要：

Risk assessment research on geological disasters mainly focuses on static disasters,but geological disasters however are dynamic process.The study of dynamic geological disasters therefore are apressing topic at present.The paper firstly discusses the use of event tree analysis and multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation combined with GIS,with the Xunzhong town of Dehua country in Quanzhou city,Fujian province as the study area;selecting the sura typhoon of August 2012,and the geological disasters of August 2nd 15,August 3rd 10 and August 3rd 23 to made a evaluation risk map to predict the development of dynamic change with this trend of geological disasters respectively to support geological disaster prevention measures.The results suggest that such techniques might play aguiding role in protection from geological disasters and could reduce loss.