中文摘要：

根据地理模拟和耕地保护相耦合的思想,基于近15 a的土地利用变化数据,以广州市黄埔区为例,从土地利用方式转换的角度出发,进行耕地的空间预警研究.①利用ArcGIS得到土地利用转移矩阵,分析得出建设用地扩张是造成耕地流失的最大因素;②采用GeoSOS集成的ANN-CA模型,以低速扩张的模式预测2020年建设用地空间分布格局;③利用ArcGIS空间分析功能,将建设用地预测图与2009年耕地现状图进行重叠分析,提取耕地预警区域.预警总面积为931.86 hm～2,占2009年耕地总面积的37.88%,耕地与建设用地之间存在尖锐矛盾.因此,相关部门可根据预警区域的地理位置和面积大小,采取补偿措施,以此协调城市发展和耕地保护之间的矛盾.

英文摘要：

①Cultivated land warning can be executed in specific location with geographical simulation and GIS.Taking Huangpu District,Guangzhou as an example,the variation trend of land use from 1995 to 2009 was analyzed and it is proved that urban land expansion is the most important reason of the cultivated land disappearance in this area.②The urban land spatial distribution pattern of 2020 was predicted in slow-expansion mode by using the ANN-CA model in GeoSOS.③Taking advantage of the spatial analysis in ArcGIS,cultivated land warning area was extracted by overlapping the urban land predicted map and cultivated land current map.The warning gross area was 931.86 hm～2 accounting for 37.88%of total cultivated land of 2009.It is concluded that there was a sharp contradiction between cultivated and urban land.A warning area is for agricultural production but it is suitable for urban development as well.According to the location and area of these warning areas,departments can adopt compensatory measures to reconcile the contradiction,manage cultivated land in multifunction,expand urban land reasonably and promote sustainable development in this area.