本文通过一个包含劳动力错配的三次产业非平衡发展模型,再现了改革开放30多年来中国经济增长过程中部门生产率向发达国家收敛的路径。数值模拟结果显示。中国部门生产率收敛呈现出不同于国际经验的“工业部门劳动生产率不收敛而服务业部门劳动生产率被动式收敛”特征。本文分析表明.中国存在严重的劳动力错配,导致过多的劳动力被滞留在工业部门.而服务业部门吸纳本地就业的功能得不到有效发挥.这是造成中国现实与国际经验背离的主要原因.并得到了中国31个省份1997—2013年面板数据的计量支持。该结论的含义是.现阶段中国服务业增加值占比已经超过工业部门,产业结构变化进入了以服务业为主的高级化阶段。但是中国工业化进程尚未结束.未来很长一段时间内提升工业部门生产率仍将是决定中国未来经济增长能否实现向发达经济体持续收敛的关键。相应的政策含义是提高劳动力市场灵活性.消除劳动力在产业间自由进出的制度性障碍。
The paper reproduces convergence path of sector productivity in the process of Chinese economic growth over the past thirty years since the reform and opening-up through a unbalanced sectors development model of three sectors including labor market distortions. Numeral stimulation shows the characteristics of convergence in service sector and non-eonvergence in manufacturing sector which are different from international experience.The analysis of this paper shows that serious labor market distortions is the major reason which causes excessive redundant labor stranded in the manufacturing sector, in the meanwhile, service sector's function of absorbing labor doesn't play effectively. The study shows that China's industrial process has not yet ended though the ratio of service sector's value added has surpassed industrial sectors and how to improve productivity of industrial sector will be the key to convergence of China's future economic growth. Policy suggestion is to improve labor market flexibility to iron out the institutional obstacles among sectors.