中文摘要：

正确评价和预测轨道几何状态的发展与变化规律是实现铁路轨道经济维修的关键问题之一。根据轨道几何状态变化的特点,基于概率分布的基本思想,建立轨道不平顺状态推移矩阵。运用轨道不平顺状态推移矩阵计算各项轨道几何不平顺在不同时间点的推移变化规律,分析和评估轨道几何状态的现状及其发展趋势。结合大量沪宁线轨道几何不平顺数据的计算与分析表明：采用基于概率分布推移变化的方法能够很好地预测轨道几何状态的变化及其发展趋势。

英文摘要：

To evaluate and predict correctly the rule of development and change of track geometric state is one of the key problems to carry out the economic maintenance of railway track. According to the change characteristics of railway track geometric state, the track irregularity status change matrix was derived based on the probability distribution theory. The track irregularity status change matrix was adopted to calculate the change law of various track geometric irregularities at different time points, analyze and eval- uate the current state and the development trend of track geometric state. The calculation results and analysis obtained from the track geometric data of Huning Railway Line （from Shanghai to Nanjing） show that the method based on the probability distribution change can better evaluate and predict the track geometric change and its development trend.