中文摘要：

采用Gumbel Logistic模型对江苏及邻近海域深水极值波浪与增水进行了联合概率分析。首先对联合概率模型参数进行拟合,得到联合超越概率与经验联合超越概率比较图。在此基础上开展有效波高和增水年极值序列联合概率分析,比较了三种经验有效波高与增水重现期组合事件的联合概率,结果表明在选定的13个代表点位处,有效波高在二者的联合概率分布中处于主导地位,采用100年一遇有效波高与10年一遇增水组合事件作为100年一遇联合事件偏保守；而50年一遇有效波高与50年一遇增水以及10年一遇有效波高与100年一遇增水组合事件的联合概率则随着点位的移动而高于或低于100年一遇的水平。

英文摘要：

The Gumbel Logistic model was adopted for the joint probability analysis of extreme waves and surges at 13 selected points in Jiangsu and nearby offshore area.The parameter indicating the correlation between wave and surge was first obtained and the theoretical and empirical exceedance probabilities were compared.The established joint probability distribution was applied to analyze the three commonly used combination events of waves and surges.The results show that the combination of 100-year return period significant wave height and 10-year return period surge level is larger than that of 100-year joint event,and the combinations of 50-year return period significant wave height and 50-year return period surge level and 10-year return period significant wave height and 100-year return period surge level can be larger or smaller than that of 100-year joint event at the selected points.