中文摘要：

本文运用1999～2015年我国保险赔付率数据构建马尔柯夫区制转换模型，分析了货币供应量对我国保险市场的非线性影响。研究结果表明：我国保险市场包括寿险市场均存在紧缩期、波动期、扩张期三种状态区制，因此具有非线性周期波动的特征；在不同状态区制下，货币供应量增长率对保险市场具有非线性影响。其中预期的货币供应变动对保险市场的影响显著且具有一致性，即紧缩政策使保险市场利润增加，但非预期的货币供应变动会削弱预期政策的调控作用。此外货币供应的波动率与保险市场的利润负相关，因此平稳有规则的货币政策调控有助于保险市场健康发展。

英文摘要：

Using Chinese insurance loss ratio during 1999 -2015 years,this paper built the Markov regime switc- hing model to analyze the nonlinear effects of the money supply on Chinese insurance market, including the life in- surance market. The results showed that the insurance market in our country had a tightening cycle, a fluctuation cycle and an expansion cycle, therefore it had a nonlinear characteristic. Moreover, the money supply growth rate had a nonlinear effect on the insurance market. The expected money supply growth had a significant negative effect on the insurance market, meanwhile the unexpected money supply growth weakened the effects. The fluctuation of the money supply growth was negatively related to the profits of insurance market, therefore it made sense that the steady control of money supply growth rate contributed to healthy development of the insurance market.