本文运用Markov switching模型研究了我国货币政策对股票市场影响的非对称效应。结论显示:上海股票市场存在牛市、小熊市及大熊市三种市场状态,其持续期分别为8.8个月、31.1个月和6.3个月;我国货币政策对上海股票市场影响存在非对称效应,这种非对称性效应主要表现在货币政策的同一变量在不同的市场状态下对股票市场的影响是非对称的,以及货币政策不同变量在同一市场状态下对股票市场的影响也是非对称的。
This paper studies asymmetric effect of China monetary policy on the stock market by using the Markov Switching model. The conclusions show that there are three market states, bull market, small bear market and big bear market in Shang- hai stock exchange market, and the corresponding durations are 8.8 months, 31.1 months and 6.3 months respectively. And the effect of monetary policy on Shanghai stock exchange market is asymmetric, that is, the impact of the same variable of the monetary policy on the stock exchange market in the different market states is asymmetric, as well as the impact of the differ- ent variables of the monetary policy on the stock market in the same market states is asymmetric.