随着经济发展进入新常态,农村经济放缓和农民增收难等问题逐渐凸显,传统的驱动要素已经难以满足现实的需要,农村电子商务逐渐成为推动农村经济发展、缩小城乡差距和解决农民增收问题的崭新驱动力。文章在分析了国内外农村电商发展研究现状的基础上,结合生态位和系统论理论,从经济生态、政治生态、文化教育生态、行业生态四大要素的动态关系出发,构建基于系统动力学的农村电商生态系统模型。并以农村电商发展成效显著、同时又是中国城乡收入差距最大的城市之一的广州农村电商生态系统为例进行实证研究,通过政策模拟和仿真研究,从政府投资、国家政策、行业环境、人才创新等方面提出了实现农村电商生态系统可持续发展的多层次混合策略。
With economic development into the new normal, it has become difficult to further increase rural economy and farmers' income. It is difficult for the traditional driving factors to meet the needs of reality. Rural e-commerce has become the new driving force to promote the development of rural economy, narrow the gap between urban and rural areas and solve the problem of increasing farmers' income. This paper analyzed the current situa- tion of the development of rural e-commerce at home and abroad. Based on the theory of niche and system theory, the rural e-commerce ecosystem model was constructed based on system dynamics from four aspects: economic ecol- ogy, political ecology, cultural and educational ecology, and industry ecology. Then using Vensim PLE to debug the model parameters, it took Guangzhou as an example in view that it is the largest one of urban-rural economic disparity in China with the remarkable development of rural e-commerce. Finally, the paper put forward a multi-lev- el mixed strategy to realize the sustainable development of rural e-commerce ecosystem from the aspects of govern- ment investment, national policy, industry environment, talent innovation and so on.