中文摘要：

医学干预措施的成本效用分析中存在着许多不确定性因素,进行医学干预措施成本效用分析时应考虑这些不确定性因素的影响,概率灵敏性分析可定量研究不确定性因素对结果的影响.本文使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,以医学实例探讨了考虑人群差异和参数不确定性时医学干预措施的成本效用分析.结果显示,全髋关节置换术病人成本效用马尔可夫模型,在考虑人群差异和参数不确定性时所得的成本效用指标平均值与固定值法计算的结果十分接近,提示该模型具有良好的稳健性,这为模型的实际应用提供了依据.

英文摘要：

There are many uncertainty factors in the cost-utility analysis of medical intervention measures that we should consider their influence. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis may study the influence of uncertainty factors quantitatively. This paper discussed the cost-utility analysis of medical intervention measures considering the population heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty with a medical example in Monte Carlo methods. The result showed that the cost-utility index averages was nearly closed to the result of the closed form calculation when considering the population heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty in total hip prostheses cost-utility Markov model. It suggested that the model had the nice steadiness and provided the evidence for the model utilization.